Trade War Fallout Hits Home

Week of June 2nd, 2025

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STARTUPS

ROUNDS AND UNICORNS

  1. Grammarly (Artificial Intelligence): Raised $1B from General Catalyst’s Customer Value Fund. Founded in San Francisco, Grammarly provides an AI-powered writing and productivity assistant and will use the funding to scale sales, marketing, and pursue strategic acquisitions

  2. Neuralink (Neuroscience): Raised $600M at a $9B pre-money valuation. Based in Fremont, California, Neuralink is developing brain-computer interfaces, currently in clinical trials for people with quadriplegia

  3.  ClickHouse (Analytics): Raised $350M (Series C) led by Khosla Ventures, plus a $100M credit facility from Stifel Bank and Goldman Sachs. Headquartered in Palo Alto, ClickHouse builds analytics and machine learning tools

  4. Grin Therapeutics (Biotech): Raised $140M (Series D), including $65M from Angelini Pharma and $75M from Blackstone Life Sciences. Based in New York, Grin develops therapies for severe neurodevelopmental disorders

  5. Snorkel AI (Artificial Intelligence): Raised $100M (Series D) at a $1.3B valuation led by Addition. Founded in 2019 in Redwood City, Snorkel builds tools for evaluating and fine-tuning specialized AI systems

A growing number of heavily funded U.S. startups that raised significant capital during the 2021 venture boom are now navigating a prolonged capital drought. Around 280 startups that each raised $100 million or more haven’t secured new funding rounds since 2021. Together, these companies amassed approximately $77.4 billion in equity funding, a figure that rivals the average global quarterly venture funding total in 2023, highlighting the scale of capital concentrated in this cohort

  • Many of these companies were once considered high-flying unicorns, especially in sectors like connected fitness, consumer tech, e-commerce, and micromobility, which have since fallen out of favor

  • The funding pause doesn’t necessarily signal failure; many are simply adapting to leaner times with changing investor preferences and valuation expectations

  • Ultimately, the post-2021 startup landscape reflects a broader truth: even unicorns aren't immune to market cycles, and while some may fizzle, others might still deliver long-term value

U.S. AI startups are capturing a dominant share of venture funding across all stages, with a clear concentration at the late stage, which accounted for 61% of labeled AI-related deals over the past year. Early-stage and seed-stage funding made up 30% and 38%, respectively. This trend reflects both a maturing segment and the capital-intensive demands of scaling top players in the space

  • Notable late-stage rounds include Databricks’ $10 billion Series J, xAI’s $6 billion round, and Anthropic’s $3.5 billion raise

  • While this could suggest a market shift toward consolidation, early-stage investors remain highly active, particularly in areas like agentic AI and AI-enabled healthcare

  • The smaller early-stage share may even be a positive sign, indicating startups are launching with greater capital efficiency—though that may change as they grow and require more funding

Global appetite for AI is rising, but access to capital remains deeply unequal. While nearly 75% of all global venture investment in Q1 2025 went to U.S. companies—largely driven by massive AI deals—many emerging regions are struggling to keep pace. At a summit in Malaysia, leaders from Southeast Asia, the Gulf, and China expressed strong interest in AI but raised concerns about affording its infrastructure, especially given the energy demands of large AI models

  • The UAE has partnered with OpenAI on a multi-billion-dollar data center initiative, but investment mionister Mohamed Alsuwaidi admitted most emerging regions still lack investable infrastructure

  • OpenAI, through its new "AI for Countries" initiative, plans to supply AI infrastructure to governments, offering compute power and platform support in exchange for local cooperation

  • Despite global enthusiasm, economic imbalance may leave many countries dependent on U.S. firms for AI development 

Over the past decade, venture capital has grown massively, with billion-dollar-plus “megafunds” becoming increasingly common. Despite the inherent paradox that the venture asset class doesn’t scale as well as the startups it funds — more capital doesn’t necessarily produce more big wins — firms have consistently raised larger and larger funds, particularly from 2015 through 2022

  • Although fundraising slowed in 2023 due to valuation corrections and unused capital, 2024 saw a 60% rebound, and 2025 levels remain steady

  • Leading firms like Insight Partners and General Catalyst top the charts, often combining venture, growth, debt, and secondary strategies

  • Despite massive dry powder and continued investor appetite, the IPO and M&A markets remain sluggish, leaving a large pipeline of unicorns in limbo

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

The U.S. economy contracted by an annualized 0.2% in Q1 2025, marking the first GDP decline since 2022, according to revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The contraction, down from a 2.4% expansion in Q4 2024, was largely driven by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to stock up ahead of Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariffs announced in early April. This import spike was not matched by inventory growth or consumer demand, which slowed due to higher prices and trade-related uncertainty

  • While investment increased slightly, consumer spending—especially in services and housing—fell

  • Since 2019, U.S. consumer prices have risen over 25%, weighing on sentiment and reducing discretionary spending

  • The IMF downgraded U.S. GDP growth forecasts to 1.8% for 2025, citing trade instability

 

On Thursday, 29th 2025, Donald Trump’s trade agenda suffered a major setback after a U.S. federal court ruled that his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs—based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—were illegal, but an appeals court allowed them to remain in place for now. The ruling challenges the legality of sweeping tariffs Trump imposed on imports from China, Mexico, Canada, and globally, arguing that the White House failed to meet the legal threshold of citing an “unusual and extraordinary threat.” The case was brought by the Liberty Justice Center and multiple U.S. states. Other tariffs imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, such as on steel, aluminum, and cars, remain unaffected

  • Markets welcomed the court’s decision as a possible curb on tariff escalation, though it also adds to broader volatility

  • Legally, Trump still has other tools to pursue trade restrictions—including Sections 122, 232, 301, and 338 of various trade acts—but these mechanisms are generally slower to implement

  • The decision also has fiscal implications: Trump was counting on tariff revenue to help offset the $5 trillion cost of his new tax plan, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, recently passed in the House

 

U.S. goods imports fell by a record 19.8% in April, totaling $276.1 billion, the sharpest monthly drop since data collection began in 1992, according to the Census Bureau. This plunge followed a March import surge ahead of President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs and reflects growing uncertainty in global trade relationships due to the administration’s erratic tariff policy

  • The steep drop in imports, especially consumer goods (-32%), industrial supplies (-31%), and automobiles (-19%), highlights the disruptive effect of sweeping levies, including a universal 10% tariff and targeted tariffs on Chinese goods

  • The sharp fall in imports is expected to boost Q2 GDP: The Atlanta Fed raised its forecast to 3.8%, while JPMorgan increased its projection to 4%, though it cautioned that trade swings distort true economic trends

  • Consumer spending also slowed to 0.2% growth in April, down from 0.7% in March, signaling broader caution in the economy

 

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China escalated again after President Donald Trump accused China of violating a recent tariff truce agreed upon during Geneva talks. While both countries had agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs—cutting U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China’s retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10%—Trump claimed China failed to roll back non-tariff barriers such as blacklisting U.S. firms and restricting rare earth exports

  • U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer echoed the concern, saying China was "slow-rolling" its compliance, prompting the U.S. to closely monitor progress

  • In response, China denied wrongdoing and accused the U.S. of discriminatory export controls, particularly in the semiconductor sector

  • The broader U.S.-China trade relationship remains unstable. While talks are continuing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said negotiations had “stalled,” although future high-level discussions are still expected

 

President Donald Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective Wednesday, aiming to boost domestic steel production and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers like China. Speaking at a rally in Pittsburgh, he also touted a $14 billion investment deal between U.S. Steel and Japan’s Nippon Steel—though details and approval remain unclear. Trump pledged no layoffs, no outsourcing, and a $5,000 bonus for steelworkers

  • About 25% of steel used in the U.S. is imported, mainly from Canada, Mexico, and Asia

  • Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum remain untouched by ongoing legal battles over his broader tariff powers, many of which have rattled global markets and strained U.S. trade relations

  • Meanwhile, Trump accused China of violating a recent tariff truce, while China urged the U.S. to lift discriminatory trade barriers

IPO & EXITS

Shein’s plans for an international IPO have hit another obstacle, as the Chinese-founded fast fashion giant shifts its focus from London to Hong Kong after failing to secure approval from Chinese regulators. The London listing had been expected to provide Shein with global legitimacy and access to Western capital, but analysts say the move to Hong Kong was predictable due to mounting scrutiny around the company’s labor practices, business ethics, and regulatory concerns

  • The decision is seen as a blow to London’s efforts to revitalize its IPO market, which has struggled with company defections and weak deal flow

  • Pressure to lower Shein’s valuation in the U.K. — reportedly from $50 billion to $30 billion — may also have influenced the pivot

  • A Hong Kong listing could yield a higher valuation and aligns with renewed investor interest in the region 

Chime, the once high-flying fintech valued at $25 billion in 2021, is preparing for an IPO amid a significantly lower valuation and a more competitive market landscape. The company, which offers fee-free checking and savings services to lower-income U.S. consumers, has seen its valuation drop by more than 50%, with recent secondary market trades pricing shares around $31 to $31.50—down from $69.07 in its last funding round. Chime plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker CHYM, with its roadshow expected to begin soon

  • Despite operating losses on an annual basis, Chime reported $13 million in net income in Q1 2024 and grew revenue by 31% to $1.7 billion for the full year

  • However, analysts remain cautious, citing limited profitability progress and mounting competition from players like Cash App, which boasts a more diversified revenue stream

The U.S. venture capital direct secondaries market is expanding, with PitchBook estimating its value at $60 billion in 2025, up from $50 billion in 2024. This growth is driven by inflated valuations of top unicorns and increased demand for liquidity amid ongoing market volatility. While average premiums hit 6% and median premiums reached 3% in Q1 2025 many startup secondary shares are still selling at 30–60% discounts from prior valuations

  • Tariff-driven uncertainty and tighter liquidity have prompted more LPs to exit positions, especially in lower-tier companies

  • Inflows into VC-focused secondaries funds have doubled since 2022, signaling rising investor appetite, but mostly for high-quality names

  • As volatility persists, concentration in the secondary market is expected to increase, favoring top-tier firms

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

Former President Trump’s re-election and executive orders targeting DEI as "illegal" accelerated a growing backlash that had been brewing since the post-George Floyd reckoning, when corporations had rushed to invest in inclusive workplaces. Now, major companies like Verizon, Walmart, and Meta are disbanding DEI teams or rebranding them under neutral terms like "belonging" or "engagement," often while continuing to claim commitment to inclusion

  • Since early 2023, over 2,600 DEI-related jobs have been eliminated in the U.S., as companies reduce or rebrand their initiatives under different terms like “belonging” or “culture”

  • This marked a 40% year-over-year decline in DEI-related job postings, even as overall job postings fell by just 10

  • While some businesses continue to express commitment to inclusive cultures, they are hiring fewer DEI professionals: one-third of DEI professionals employed in 2022 no longer held their roles in 2024

AI8 VENTURES HIGHLIGHT

The Illusion of Recovery - Venture Capital 2025

“We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing... It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

Donald J. Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President

We are living in a world defined by rapid and accelerating change, political, economic, social, and technological. This is not a typical business cycle. We are in an era shaped by powerful megatrends, with AI transforming industries, geopolitical shifts reshaping markets, and macroeconomic forces creating new uncertainties.

Just weeks before the 2024 election, The Economist described the U.S. economy as the “envy of the world.” After Donald Trump’s victory in November, markets initially anticipated controlled inflation, deregulation, and a less restrictive monetary policy. Fast-forward a few months to April 2025, and the optimism has faded. With capital markets reacting negatively to renewed trade war fears, over $5 trillion in market value were erased in a couple of days.

2025 opened with headlines proclaiming a venture capital comeback.

On paper, VC funding rebounded, driven by an unprecedented surge in AI investment. But beneath the surface, it’s a tale of two markets: one propelled by billion-dollar mega-deals in Artificial Intelligence, and another still struggling to regain traction amid macroeconomic uncertainty, investor hesitation, and a lingering liquidity crunch.

With Trump reigniting trade wars, tariffs reshaping global supply chains, and AI advancing at breakneck speed, it’s becoming harder than ever to place clear bets.

The real question is: what are you going to bet on?

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Happy reading,

8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team