The AI Power Trade

Author

Nicole Rojas
May 18, 2026

Welcome to AlphaInsights, 8alpha.ai’s weekly newsletter, your ultimate source for curated insights and key updates from the dynamic world of venture capital!

From billion-dollar rounds to market-defining shifts, we deliver the intelligence powering the global investment landscape, moving investors and innovators forward. At 8alpha.ai, we’re not waiting for the future of capital, we’re building it. Stay sharp, stay curious, and stay ahead.

STARTUPS

ROUNDS AND UNICORNS

  1. Anduril Industries (Defense Tech): Raised $5B in Series H funding at a $61B valuation, doubling its valuation from $30.5B less than a year ago. The round was led by Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive Capital, bringing total funding to $11.4B

  2. VoltaGrid (Energy): Secured a $1B strategic investment from Halliburton and Blackstone, including $775M in new capital and a $225M secondary share purchase. The company provides mobile natural gas generators for data centers and industrial use

  3. Mind Robotics (Robotics): Raised $400M in financing led by Kleiner Perkins, pushing total funding above $1B. The AI robotics startup launched in 2025 as a Rivian spinout

  4. Cowboy Space (Space Tech): Closed a $275M Series B at a $2B valuation. The company develops rockets and satellite infrastructure for AI computing in space

  5. Oishii (Indoor Farming): Raised $150M in Series C funding led by Sparx Asset Management, bringing total funding to $370M since its founding in 2016

Investors are increasingly debating the rise of massive AI seed rounds, warning that too much capital too early could reduce founder discipline and encourage inefficient growth. AI startups including Advanced Machine Intelligence ($1.03B), World Labs ($1B), and Ineffable Intelligence ($1.1B) have already raised record-breaking seed rounds, fueling concerns that FOMO-driven funding could push startups to scale too quickly before validating their business models

  • Despite the mega-rounds, the median U.S. seed round has remained around $3M over the past two years

  • Investors argued that tighter funding can improve focus, efficiency, and execution

  • Smaller rounds may reduce excessive spending and improve long-term discipline

 

AI startups raised a record $255.5B globally in Q1 2026, already surpassing the full-year 2025 total. However, funding remains highly concentrated: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI accounted for $172B, or roughly 67% of all AI funding, while the remaining $83.5B was spread across 1,543 deals. Much of the capital came from sovereign wealth funds, hyperscalers, and large institutions rather than traditional VC firms

  • OpenAI raised $122B from investors including Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, while Anthropic raised $30B from GIC, MGX, and BlackRock

  • Anthropic’s annualized revenue reportedly grew from $14B to $30B in two months, while OpenAI surpassed $25B

  • Governments, hyperscalers, and Wall Street firms are playing a larger role in financing frontier AI companies

 

Anthropic is reportedly finalizing a funding deal at a $930B valuation, surpassing OpenAI’s $852B valuation for the first time and intensifying the race toward a potential AI IPO. Investors appear increasingly willing to pay a premium for Anthropic’s growth profile, with PitchBook estimating a 9.0x equity return ratio for Anthropic versus 4.9x for OpenAI. Anthropic has also gained momentum in enterprise adoption

  • Ramp’s May 2026 AI Index showed 34.4% of U.S. businesses using Anthropic, slightly ahead of OpenAI’s 32.3%, marking the first crossover on record

  • Anthropic’s annualized revenue reportedly exceeded $30B, while gross margins improved to 70%+, up from 38% a year earlier

  • The round is reportedly backed by Dragoneer, Greenoaks, Sequoia, and Altimeter, highlighting continued capital concentration in frontier AI

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing produced early signs of stabilization in U.S.-China relations, though many details remain unresolved. The two countries agreed to create a “board of trade” and “board of investment” to manage economic tensions more predictably after years of trade conflict. The White House also said China agreed to purchase at least $17B annually in U.S. agricultural products through 2028 and make an initial purchase of 200 Boeing aircraft, while maintaining an earlier commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans. Beijing, however, described the outcomes as “preliminary”

  • The talks signal an effort to reduce volatility after years of declining trade and investment flows

  • Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural goods fell to $8.4B last year, versus $24.4B in 2024, while tariffs and export controls disrupted supply chains and technology trade

  • Both sides discussed tariff reductions and cooperation, though disputes around semiconductors and advanced technology remain unresolved

 

Rising inflation and fuel costs tied to the Iran war are increasingly pressuring U.S. consumers, households, and policymakers. U.S. inflation recently reached its highest level in about three years, while gasoline prices climbed to roughly $4.52 per gallon, up more than 40% year-over-year (AAA). Consumer confidence also fell to a record low, while Americans are taking on more debt and saving less, reflecting growing financial strain. At the same time, employers still added 115,000 jobs in April, beating expectations, though analysts warn the labor market is gradually softening

  • Economists warn that high energy prices could slow growth, weaken spending, and keep inflation elevated despite resilient markets

  • Most forecasters expect U.S. GDP growth below 3%, versus White House projections above 6%

  • Markets increasingly expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer

 

U.S. federal debt has now surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II, reigniting concerns about the country’s long-term fiscal path. The Congressional Budget Office projects publicly held debt could rise to 175% of GDP by 2056, while rising interest rates are making the debt increasingly expensive to finance. Thirty-year Treasury yields recently reached 5.12%, their highest level since 2007, up from roughly 1% in 2020, and federal net interest payments now exceed the size of the U.S. defense budget

  • The White House proposed a record $1.5T defense budget for 2027, while the Senate advanced a $72B immigration package

  • Economists warn that rising deficits and borrowing costs could eventually constrain growth and fiscal flexibility

  • Markets have not yet fully priced in a major debt-related shock

IPOs & EXITS

Cerebras Shares Soar In First Day On Nasdaq (Crunchbase, 4 minute read)

Cerebras Systems surged in its Nasdaq debut, with shares closing up 68% at $311.07, after opening at $350 and pricing at $185 per share, giving the AI chipmaker an estimated $86B valuation. The company raised at least $5.55B in the IPO, making it one of the largest AI-related public offerings in recent years. Cerebras, which develops AI computing chips and large-scale AI systems, previously filed for an IPO in September 2024 before withdrawing the offering a year later to continue raising private capital

  • Cerebras generated $510M in 2025 revenue, up 76% year-over-year and more than 6x higher over two years

  • The company previously raised about $2.85B in equity funding and $1.85B in debt financing, with major venture backers including Fidelity (11.3%)

  • Cerebras has also secured partnerships with major technology companies including OpenAI, Meta, AWS, and IBM

 

Fervo, the geothermal startup backed by Breakthrough Energy Ventures and other major investors, surged 35% in its Nasdaq debut, closing at $36.54 per share after pricing its IPO at $27. The company raised $1.89B in the offering, highlighting strong investor demand for energy infrastructure tied to the AI data center boom. Fervo sold 70 million shares, and the IPO consisted entirely of newly issued company stock

  • Despite just $138K in 2025 revenue and a $57.8M loss, Fervo’s contracted revenue backlog reached $7.2B by year-end

  • Fervo also signed a 3-gigawatt power agreement with Google for AI data centers

  • The IPO highlights growing investor demand for energy infrastructure tied to AI growth

 

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to publicly file for its long-awaited IPO as soon as this week, with plans to begin marketing in early June and potentially list on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX by June 12. The company is seeking to raise as much as $75B at a valuation above $2T, which would make it the largest IPO in history. Major banks including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi are leading the offering

  • SpaceX has become one of the world’s most valuable private companies through Starlink, rocket launches, and AI

  • Launch and Starlink revenue is expected to approach $20B in 2026, while xAI may generate less than $1B

  • The IPO is expected to be a major market event for Musk’s space and AI ecosystem

 

8ALPHA.AI HIGHLIGHT

Join us for the launch of the LaFamilia Seattle Chapter on June 18th at 5:30PM, bringing together founders, investors, and operators from across the tech ecosystem.

As we kick off the Seattle chapter, we’re excited to create a space for ambitious builders and supporters of the startup community to connect, collaborate, and discover the next generation of emerging startups.

The evening will feature a live startup pitch competition, where five selected early-stage startups will pitch their ideas in front of investors and the community. Founders will compete for a winner’s prize, investor visibility, and the opportunity to connect with people who can help accelerate their growth.

Whether you’re actively building, investing, scouting new ideas, or simply curious about the startup ecosystem, this is a great opportunity to meet ambitious people and discover exciting companies early.

Expect:

  • Live startup pitches from selected founders

  • Networking with top investors, angels, and operators

  • Food, drinks, and casual conversations

  • A relaxed evening with the Seattle startup community

📍 Seattle
🗓 June 18th
⏰ 5:30 PM (PDT)

Interested in pitching your startup? Apply here.

Powered by Awana, Alpha Impact 8 Ventures, SVB, hal9, and LaFamilia.

Register here to receive the full address and event details.

We’d love to see you there.

The Venture Model Is Broken. What Comes Next?

99% of deals don’t matter.

In Q1 2026, nearly $200B went into just five companies, with ~89% of deal value concentrated in AI.

At the same time:

  • Fund formation has dropped sharply

  • Exit activity remains limited

  • Liquidity is concentrated in a handful of large outcomes

From the outside, it looks like venture capital is back. But underneath, the reality is very different.

Fewer funds are being raised

Liquidity is still tight

And for most companies, access to capital hasn’t improved

This isn’t just a cycle, it’s a structural shift in how capital is allocated.

Watch Nicole Rojas, Head of Investment Operations at 8alpha.ai, break it down in our latest State of VC update. Explore funding and learn more at 8alpha.ai.

State of VC Report: The AI Power Law

“Every technological revolution has two halves: the bubble and the golden age that follows.”

Carlota Perez, economist and author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (2002)

The stock market is at all-time highs, but inflation remains sticky and the job market is weakening. Ask around and you’ll hear the same refrain: the labor market feels tougher than ever. At the same time, the first wave of AI agents is “joining the workforce”. Imagine a software engineering agent capable of performing most tasks of a mid-level developer. Now imagine thousands. Extend that across every knowledge field, and the implications for productivity, and potential displacement, are profound.

What happens when the next round of layoffs hits? Add tariffs on top, and ask what happens if consumption weakens. Even the Federal Reserve admits it is unsure of what comes next.

Against this backdrop, venture capital in 2025 is not in recovery but in recalibration. The illusion of recovery is powered almost entirely by AI. Capital is flowing, but to fewer companies than ever. Outside AI, down rounds are rising, and nearly half the unicorn population hasn’t raised since 2022.

We are living in an AI bubble. Just four mega caps, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Broadcom, accounted for 60% of the S&P 500’s gains, with Nvidia alone responsible for more than a quarter. It’s a paradox. Yes, we’re in a bubble, but it’s also the future. We are witnessing what may be the most important technological shift in a generation. It’s hype layered on top of something undeniably real.

Uncertainty is the name of the game; not one single path forward, but divergent scenarios. Alpha will be earned through selectivity, by navigating volatility rather than avoiding it.

8alpha.ai is an AI fintech transforming cash-generating businesses into scalable, AI-powered companies. We provide revenue-based financing and hands-on AI transformation, delivering no zeros with unlimited upside. We’re the architects building financial infrastructure for the next generation of investors and startups.

Become part of our revolution.

Happy reading,

8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team