Week of September 15th, 2025

Welcome to 8alpha.ai’s weekly newsletter, your ultimate source for curated insights and updates from the dynamic world of venture capital!

We’ve scoured the vast landscape of the web to bring you a comprehensive roundup of the industry’s top news articles, all in one convenient place. We keep you ahead of the game and in the know about all things related to the vibrant world of investments

STARTUPS

ROUNDS AND UNICORNS

The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: A Busy Week For Big Financings, Led By Databricks And PsiQuantum (Crunchbase, 5 minute read)

• Databricks (AI data platform): Secured $1 billion in Series K funding at a $100+ billion valuation. Founded in 2013, the company provides data and AI infrastructure and reports a $4 billion revenue run rate with 50%+ annual growth

• PsiQuantum (Quantum computing): Secured $1 billion in Series E funding at a $7 billion valuation. Founded in 2015, the company is developing the world’s first commercially viable fault-tolerant quantum computers

• Cognition (AI coding): Secured $400 million at a $10.2 billion valuation. Founded in 2023, the company builds AI tools for software development and coding automation

• Strive Health (Kidney care): Secured $300 million in Series D equity funding and $250 million in debt, supporting its care platform for patients with kidney disease

• Odyssey Therapeutics (Biopharma): Secured $213 million in Series D funding to advance autoimmune and inflammatory disease treatments, after withdrawing a planned IPO earlier this year

Active US Investors Slowed Some In August (Crunchbase, 2 minute read)

U.S. startup funding slowed in August 2025, though it’s unclear if this signals a downturn or just a temporary dip, as September opened strong with Anthropic’s $13B round. While many firms pulled back, several top investors stayed active. Y Combinator, General Catalyst, and Sequoia backed the most rounds of $5M+ in August

• General Catalyst, Andreessen Horowitz, and Insight Partners led the most post-seed deals

• Founders Fund topped spending—driven by a $500M round for Cognition—followed by SK ($463M for Group14) and Andreessen Horowitz (including a $250M Series E for EliseAI)

• At the seed stage, Y Combinator led activity, though at a slower pace than July, with Alumni Ventures and Techstars close behind

What The Big Beautiful Bill Means For Founders (Crunchbase, 2 minute read)

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on July 4, introduces sweeping tax reforms designed to boost startups by expanding R&D expensing, revamping Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) rules, and reinstating bonus depreciation. Starting in 2025, U.S.-based R&D expenses can be fully deducted in the year they’re incurred, and startups with under $31 million in annual receipts can apply this retroactively for 2022–2024 to claim refunds. The QSBS changes raise the eligibility cap from $50 million to $75 million, increase the maximum exclusion from $10 million to $15 million, and add tiered capital gains breaks—50% after 3 years, 75% after 4, and 100% after 5

• This could accelerate exits and secondary sales, particularly in fast-moving sectors like AI

• Meanwhile, the return of 100% bonus depreciation for qualifying equipment placed in service after January 19, 2025 lets startups immediately write off major capital purchases to free up cash flow

• Together, these changes give founders valuable ways to save on taxes, access cash from exits sooner, and invest more boldly — but they’ll need careful planning as IRS rules and details are finalized

Nvidia Sustains High Startup Investment Pace (Crunchbase, 3 minute read)

Nvidia has rapidly become one of the most active startup investors in the U.S., making at least 42 private company investments so far in 2025, up from last year’s already high pace. As a $4.3 trillion company, Nvidia is using its vast resources to back startups through its NVentures arm, with a focus on “hard tech” — complex, high-barrier fields like AI, quantum computing, robotics, biotech, and fusion energy

• Major bets include an $863M Series B in Commonwealth Fusion Systems, $600M for quantum startup Quantinuum, $300M in AI21 Labs, and a $135M round in Skild AI

• Nvidia typically takes non-lead roles (only 1 in 8 rounds led), aiming to gain strategic exposure across the AI ecosystem rather than control

• The chip giant now holds stakes in many of the most valuable AI firms — including OpenAI, Databricks, xAI, and Scale AI — and is also investing in energy infrastructure to support the power demands of AI

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

US inflation rises in August as firms pass Trump tariffs cost on to consumers (The Guardian, 3 minute read)

U.S. inflation rose to 2.9% in August, the highest since January, as companies passed tariff costs on to consumers, while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. Despite the uptick, Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 0.25 points at its Sept. 17 meeting, citing signs of a weakening jobs market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled possible policy shifts at Jackson Hole, noting that tariffs are pushing prices up while “downside risks to employment are rising”

• Recent data showed major downward revisions to jobs figures and a rise in unemployment to 4.3%, the highest since 2021

• Trump has pressured the Fed to lower rates, while the central bank weighs the risk of cutting too late against its 2% inflation target

The US economy has come down with a case of early-onset stagflation (CNN, 3 minute read)

The Federal Reserve is under intense political and economic pressure as it prepares to cut interest rates at its September 17–18 meeting, trying to navigate rising inflation and a weakening labor market. The consumer price index rose 2.9% year over year in August—its highest since January—while core CPI held at 3.1%, showing that price pressures remain sticky even as growth cools. At the same time, the unemployment rate has climbed to 4.3%, the highest since 2021

• These signs have led many to expect the Fed will cut rates by 0.25–0.50 points from the current 4.25%–5.5% range to support the job market without sparking new inflation

• President Trump has publicly pressed the Fed for deeper, faster cuts, while also threatening to fire officials he views as resisting his agenda

• Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that a cut is coming, warning at Jackson Hole that “downside risks to employment are rising” and that delaying action could trigger “sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment”

Is the US already in a recession? (Financial Times, 6 minute read)

Despite avoiding a technical recession, large parts of the U.S. economy are showing recession-like conditions. While U.S. GDP grew in Q2 after contracting in Q1, all six key indicators tracked by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) were near or in contraction in May. Yet NBER has not declared a recession, partly because its approach relies on lagging data. Economist Pascal Michaillat estimates a 71% chance the U.S. was already in recession in May, citing rising unemployment and falling vacancies

• Public sentiment echoes this: in an August poll, nearly half of Americans said the economy was “getting worse,” and one-third believe it is already in recession

• According to Moody’s Analytics, states producing about one-third of U.S. GDP are in or at high risk of recession, notably the Midwest and Rust Belt, while California, Texas, and New York remain stable

• The AI boom has been pivotal, with Pantheon Macroeconomics estimating U.S. GDP would have grown just 0.6% annualized in H1 2025 without AI-related spending—about half the actual rate

IPO & EXITS

IPO pops are nearing 10-year highs, and tech is leading the way (Yahoo Finance, 4 minute read)

Tech IPOs are driving a surge in first-day stock “pops” in 2025, with gains nearing decade highs. Notable examples include Figma, which soared 250% on debut (from $33 to $115.50) before settling near $54, and Circle, which jumped 165% (from $31 to $83.23). Bullish rose over 80% and Figure climbed 44% in their first sessions. So far this year, U.S. IPOs have averaged a 27.5% first-day jump, nearly double last year’s pace, while the 20 largest IPOs have averaged 36%, according to Rainmaker Securities and Reuters

• Tech offerings on the NYSE have led the way, averaging 36.3% first-day gains and raising over $13.5B, with crypto-related fintechs fueling investor enthusiasm

• Analysts say tech companies are harder to value due to their rapid growth and uncertain future markets, leading to bigger swings

• Historically, however, IPOs with high early hype underperform peers by about 8% long-term, and Figma’s comedown underscores that risk

• Still, IPO activity is up 53% year over year, and market experts see no sign of the hot streak cooling soon

Klarna Shares Pop In Long-Awaited Public Market Entry (Crunchbase, 2 minute read)

Klarna shares jumped 16% on their NYSE debut, closing at $46.40 after opening at $52, giving the Swedish fintech a $17.5B market cap. The company raised $1.37B in its long-awaited IPO, pricing shares at $40 after strong demand and surpassing its recent private valuation of $14.6B

• The profitable firm, once valued at $45.6B, has raised nearly $6.2B since 2005 and reported $21M in 2024 net income

• Klarna’s listing follows a wave of successful fintech IPOs—including Figma, Circle, and Chime—and signals that the fintech IPO market is rebounding after years of stagnation

Via’s bumpy debut shows there’s still market unease for lossmakers (Pitchbook, 2 minute read)

Via debuted on the NYSE at $44 per share—below its $46 IPO price—but rebounded to close at $50, giving the public transit software provider a $3.7B market cap. The company raised $492M from the offering, which included both new shares and sales by existing investors such as Exor, 83North, and Pitango Venture Capital. This marks only a modest uptick from its $3.5B Series G valuation in 2023

• Via, which also owns consumer transport app Citymapper, joins Klarna, Figure, Gemini, and Netskope in the post–Labor Day IPO rush that has re-energized private markets

• However, its choppy debut signals that public market appetite may be cooling for companies outside high-buzz sectors like AI and blockchain

• Financially, Via is growing but still unprofitable, reporting $206M in revenue and a $38M net loss in the first half of 2025, after a $90M net loss in 2024

Gemini’s $425M blockbuster debut is double trouble for crypto naysayers (Pitchbook, 3 minute read)

Gemini closed its Nasdaq debut at $32 a share, up 14% from its $28 IPO price, giving the crypto exchange a $3.3B market cap and continuing the hot streak of crypto IPOs alongside Bullish, Circle, and Figure. The offering raised $425M after strong demand pushed pricing well above initial targets, while Nasdaq invested $50M in a private placement, signaling growing institutional confidence in crypto firms

• Founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini went public at a 53% discount from its $7.1B 2021 valuation, yet drew heavy investor interest despite reporting losses

• The listing is widely seen as a sign that public markets are warming to crypto-native business models, offering exposure to crypto cycles in a familiar exchange structure

The Big 5 Still Aren’t Buying Many Startups (Crunchbase, 3 minute read)

The Big Five U.S. tech companies — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon — have a combined market cap of over $16T and about $400B in cash, yet have disclosed only 10 startup acquisitions so far this year, continuing a multi-year slowdown in M&A activity. The lone standout is Google’s planned $32B acquisition of cloud security firm Wiz, the largest startup buyout ever, though it still faces antitrust review

• Other disclosed deals have been smaller and often undisclosed in price, including Nvidia buying AI data startup Gretel and Amazon acquiring fintech Axio and wearable developer Bee

• Rather than pursue costly acquisitions, the Big Five are increasingly focusing on startup investments, partnerships, and talent poaching—as when Microsoft hired most of Inflection AI’s staff

• This pattern suggests a “new normal” of fewer large startup acquisitions, shaped by regulatory scrutiny and the ability of tech giants to license tech or hire talent without buying entire companies

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

For the first time in over 60 years, the gender pay gap widened 2 years in a row (CNBC, 3 minute read)

The U.S. gender pay gap widened for the second consecutive year in 2024 — the first time that’s happened since records began in the 1960s. According to Census Bureau data, women working full-time earned 81 cents for every $1 men earned, down from 83 cents in 2023 and 84 cents in 2022. Men’s median income rose 3.7% to $71,090, while women’s stayed flat at $57,520. The gap is even wider for Black women (65 cents) and Latinas (58 cents) compared to white men

• Experts warn the trend is troubling, especially as over 400,000 women — many of them mothers — left the workforce in early 2025, the steepest drop in more than 40 years

• This exodus, combined with childcare barriers and Black women’s rising 6.7% unemployment rate, threatens to worsen gender inequities

AI8 VENTURES HIGHLIGHT

The Illusion of Recovery - Venture Capital 2025

We are living in a world defined by rapid and accelerating change, political, economic, social, and technological. This is not a typical business cycle. We are in an era shaped by powerful megatrends, with AI transforming industries, geopolitical shifts reshaping markets, and macroeconomic forces creating new uncertainties.

Just weeks before the 2024 election, The Economist described the U.S. economy as the “envy of the world.” After Donald Trump’s victory in November, markets initially anticipated controlled inflation, deregulation, and a less restrictive monetary policy. Fast-forward a few months to April 2025, and the optimism has faded. With capital markets reacting negatively to renewed trade war fears, over $5 trillion in market value were erased in a couple of days.

2025 opened with headlines proclaiming a venture capital comeback.

On paper, VC funding rebounded, driven by an unprecedented surge in AI investment. But beneath the surface, it’s a tale of two markets: one propelled by billion-dollar mega-deals in Artificial Intelligence, and another still struggling to regain traction amid macroeconomic uncertainty, investor hesitation, and a lingering liquidity crunch.

With Trump reigniting trade wars, tariffs reshaping global supply chains, and AI advancing at breakneck speed, it’s becoming harder than ever to place clear bets.

The real question is: what are you going to bet on?

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Happy reading,

8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team