Big Tech, Big Bets

Author

Nicole Rojas
February 09, 2026

Week of February 9th, 2026

Welcome to AlphaInsights, 8alpha.ai’s weekly newsletter, your ultimate source for curated insights and key updates from the dynamic world of venture capital!

From billion-dollar rounds to market-defining shifts, we deliver the intelligence powering the global investment landscape, moving investors and innovators forward. At 8alpha.ai, we’re not waiting for the future of capital, we’re building it. Stay sharp, stay curious, and stay ahead.

STARTUPS

ROUNDS AND UNICORNS

  1. Waymo (Autonomous Driving): Alphabet spinout Waymo raised $16 billion in a late-stage round led by Dragoneer Investment Group, DST Global, and Sequoia Capital, valuing the company at $126 billion post-money. Founded nearly a decade ago and based in Mountain View, California, Waymo plans to expand its robotaxi service to 20 additional cities, including Tokyo and London

  2. Cerebras Systems (AI Hardware): AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems closed a $1 billion Series H led by Tiger Global, setting a post-money valuation of approximately $23 billion. Founded in 2016 and headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, the company develops large-scale processors designed to accelerate AI model training and inference

  3. ElevenLabs (AI Audio): New York–based ElevenLabs raised $500 million in a Series D led by Sequoia Capital, valuing the company at $11 billion, more than 3× higher than a year ago. Founded in 2022, the company reported over $330 million in annual recurring revenue in 2025 from its AI voice and audio generation tools

  4. Skyryse (Aviation Technology): Aviation software and hardware startup Skyryse raised more than $300 million in a Series C led by Autopilot Ventures and Fidelity at a valuation above $1 billion. Founded in 2015 and based in El Segundo, California, the company is developing an operating system for flight alongside its own aircraft, the Skyryse One

  5. Bedrock Robotics (Construction Robotics): San Francisco–based Bedrock Robotics raised over $270 million in a Series B led by CapitalG and Valor Atreides AI Fund, reportedly valuing the company at around $1.75 billion. Founded in 2023, the company builds autonomous robotics systems for the construction industry

Small Late-Stage Rounds Are Fading Away (Crunchbase, 3 minute read)

Late-stage startup funding is increasingly concentrated in mega-rounds, leaving smaller late-stage raises ($30M and under) squeezed out. Crunchbase data shows these smaller Series C+ rounds have declined for six straight years, hitting just $1.36B across 69 U.S. rounds in 2025, under 2% of all late-stage investment. Early 2026 looks even weaker, with these rounds representing roughly 0.2% of late-stage funding so far. The shift reflects investors placing bigger bets on a small number of perceived winners

  • At the same time, exit paths for “good-but-not-great” companies have narrowed: big tech is doing fewer small acquisitions, and private equity is less active because debt is more expensive

  • The result is a tougher environment for late-stage startups that need modest capital to reach the next milestone but don’t fit the “breakout winner” profile

 

The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its portion of the CLARITY Act, a crypto market-structure bill aimed at clarifying regulatory authority over digital assets. The legislation largely tracks the House-passed version and would treat certain crypto assets as digital commodities, expanding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) oversight of crypto spot markets. The bill creates a registration system for crypto intermediaries, including exchanges, dealers, and some custodians, requiring them to register with the CFTC, meet capital and operating standards, and follow consumer-protection rules like disclosures and anti-fraud safeguards

  • The Act also authorizes fee collection and directs joint SEC-CFTC rulemaking to manage overlapping jurisdiction

  • Despite earlier bipartisan momentum, the measure advanced on Republican-only support, with Democratic amendments on ethics and consumer protection failing

  • Negotiations continue, particularly around stablecoin yield, where the White House is working to bridge gaps between the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act, aiming for progress by late February

Big Tech’s push to dominate AI is driving a return to vertical integration, echoing IBM’s strategy in the 1960s. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are developing custom AI chips and infrastructure, such as proprietary networking and fiber, to reduce reliance on Nvidia, cut costs, and better optimize hardware for their software. Alphabet is furthest along, with its TPUs advanced enough to attract rivals and reportedly even potential external sales, while Amazon claims its in-house Trainium chips deliver up to 60% better price-performance for some workloads

  • Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the custom AI chip market could reach $122 billion by 2033

  • The shift is driven by Nvidia’s high costs, limited supply, and rising energy constraints, but analysts warn vertical integration is expensive and only a few firms can afford to do it at scale, raising the risk that not all hyper scalers will succeed

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

 

Bank of America Global Research expects the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) to drive a major tax-season stimulus in 2026, with tax refunds projected to rise by about $65B vs. 2025 (+18% YoY). BofA estimates the bill could generate $135B–$140B in consumer stimulus, but warns the benefits will likely be unevenly distributed, reinforcing a “K-shaped” economy. The analysis suggests middle- and higher-income households will capture much of the upside, largely due to changes such as the higher SALT deduction cap, while lower-income households see more limited gains despite provisions like tip and overtime deductions

  • Treasury and independent estimates suggest the typical 2026 refund could be $300–$1,000 higher, with some estimates placing the average around $3,800

  • Economically, much of the stimulus may not translate into consumer spending, since higher-income households are more likely to save or invest (including in stocks)

  • Still, refunds can meaningfully boost lower-income spending, especially as growth has softened, with Q4 2025 GDP tracking near ~2.4% and a “choppy” start to 2026

 

U.S. labor-market data turned sharply weaker in January, with job cuts jumping to 108,435 (the highest January level since 2009) and job openings falling to 6.5 million, the lowest in more than five years. Initial jobless claims also rose to 231,000, reinforcing the view that hiring and labor demand are continuing to soften. The deterioration contrasts with the Fed’s recent “stabilization” message and is increasing attention on the delayed January jobs report

  • Treasury yields fell and rate-cut bets rose, but economists say the Fed needs sustained weakness, including unemployment near ~4.6%, before cutting as soon as March

  • Job losses are concentrated in professional and business services, with large one-off layoffs in transportation (31,000+, mostly UPS) and tech (22,291, including Amazon)

IPOs & EXITS

Private-market dealmaking rebounded in 2025, reaching nearly $5 trillion across 50,000+ global M&A transactions, but activity remained highly concentrated in mega-deals. Deals $1B+ made up over half of total M&A value, despite representing only 1.5% of deal count, and the number of mega-deals rose 28% year-over-year while smaller transactions lagged

  • Looking ahead to 2026, major private equity players expect the market to broaden beyond headline mega-deals, with more mid-sized activity, corporate carveouts, and take-privates as earnings stabilize

  • They also expect more sponsor-to-sponsor sales, as GPs look to exit aging assets

  • Investors with available capital, especially LPs able to commit to new funds and co-invest, are expected to be best positioned if the deal pipeline continues to reopen

 

SpaceX Opens IPO Pitching to Non-US Banks (2 minute read, Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance)

SpaceX has reportedly begun lining up banks for a potential IPO later this year, meeting in mid-January with non-US banks pitching for junior underwriting roles. The company had already interviewed major Wall Street firms, with Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley expected to lead the listing. Bloomberg reports the IPO could raise up to $50 billion, requiring a large global syndicate

  • SpaceX is also considering allocating a meaningful share of stock to retail investors, with Robinhood seeking a role

  • Following SpaceX’s announced acquisition of Musk’s xAI, the combined company is said to be valued at $1.25 trillion (roughly $1T SpaceX + $250B xAI) 

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

California’s new VC diversity reporting law (FIPVCC) takes effect in 2026, requiring most venture capital firms with any California nexus to register with the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) by March 1, 2026 and submit their first annual report by April 1, 2026 (covering 2025 investments). Firms must collect and report aggregated, anonymized demographic data on portfolio company founding teams using a DFPI-provided survey; founder participation is voluntary, but firms must document outreach

  • The law broadly covers VC firms that invest in early-stage companies and have a California nexus through headquarters, operations, investments, or fundraising from state residents

  • Reports will be made publicly searchable by the DFPI, creating a major new transparency requirement for the industry

  • Noncompliance carries a 60-day cure period, followed by penalties of up to $5,000 per day

Venture investors are making more concentrated bets in climate tech as U.S. energy policy remains uncertain, putting more capital into fewer perceived winners. PitchBook data shows global climate tech VC deal value was $42.2B in 2025, roughly flat vs. $42.8B in 2024, but the number of deals fell from 2,906 to 2,130 (down 776 deals, or about -27%), reaching a half-decade low

  • At the same time, investors have increasingly favored AI-driven climate tech, especially startups that can cut energy costs across different power sources

  • AI climate tech deal value hit an all-time high, even as the number of AI startup deals declined, reflecting the broader shift toward fewer, larger rounds

  • Capital is shifting toward nuclear and geothermal, while wind and solar are losing momentum, as AI data center growth pushes up U.S. power demand and strains the grid

 

US VC female founders dashboard (PitchBook, 5 minute read)

Venture capital funding for female-founded startups in the U.S. has stabilized after a steep decline from the 2021 peak. While women-led companies now represent a smaller share of total VC deals, they continue to capture a growing portion of total capital raised, signaling stronger deal quality and investor confidence. So far 2026, women co-led companies have raised $3.8 billion across 188 deals (vs. $51 billion across 880 deals in Q1 2025)

  • So far 2026, female-only founded companies captured 5.9% of total deal count, while female-and-male co-led teams account for 17.1%

  • In terms of capital, female-only teams received 2.1% of total VC investment, compared to 6.9% going to mixed-gender founding teams

  • According to PitchBook data, the 16-year trend shows steady progress across states, industries, and stages, highlighting a sustained shift toward greater inclusion and visibility for women founders in the U.S. venture ecosystem

AI8 VENTURES HIGHLIGHT

State of VC Report: The AI Power Law

“Every technological revolution has two halves: the bubble and the golden age that follows.”

Carlota Perez, economist and author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (2002)

The stock market is at all-time highs, but inflation remains sticky and the job market is weakening. Ask around and you’ll hear the same refrain: the labor market feels tougher than ever. At the same time, the first wave of AI agents is “joining the workforce”. Imagine a software engineering agent capable of performing most tasks of a mid-level developer. Now imagine thousands. Extend that across every knowledge field, and the implications for productivity, and potential displacement, are profound.

What happens when the next round of layoffs hits? Add tariffs on top, and ask what happens if consumption weakens. Even the Federal Reserve admits it is unsure of what comes next.

Against this backdrop, venture capital in 2025 is not in recovery but in recalibration. The illusion of recovery is powered almost entirely by AI. Capital is flowing, but to fewer companies than ever. Outside AI, down rounds are rising, and nearly half the unicorn population hasn’t raised since 2022.

We are living in an AI bubble. Just four mega caps, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Broadcom, accounted for 60% of the S&P 500’s gains, with Nvidia alone responsible for more than a quarter. It’s a paradox. Yes, we’re in a bubble, but it’s also the future. We are witnessing what may be the most important technological shift in a generation. It’s hype layered on top of something undeniably real.

Uncertainty is the name of the game; not one single path forward, but divergent scenarios. Alpha will be earned through selectivity, by navigating volatility rather than avoiding it.

8alpha.ai is an AI fintech transforming cash-generating businesses into scalable, AI-powered companies. We provide revenue-based financing and hands-on AI transformation, delivering no zeros with unlimited upside. We’re the architects building financial infrastructure for the next generation of investors and startups.

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Happy reading,

8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team