AI Wins

Author

Nicole Rojas
February 16, 2026

Week of February 16th, 2026

Welcome to AlphaInsights, 8alpha.ai’s weekly newsletter, your ultimate source for curated insights and key updates from the dynamic world of venture capital!

From billion-dollar rounds to market-defining shifts, we deliver the intelligence powering the global investment landscape, moving investors and innovators forward. At 8alpha.ai, we’re not waiting for the future of capital, we’re building it. Stay sharp, stay curious, and stay ahead.

STARTUPS

ROUNDS AND UNICORNS

  1. Anthropic (Generative AI): Raised $30B Series G, valuing the San Francisco–based company at $380B post-money. Led by GIC and Coatue, it is the largest VC deal of 2026 so far

  2. Apptronik (Humanoid Robotics): Added $520M to its prior $415M Series A, bringing the total to $935M+. The Austin-based startup builds AI-powered humanoid robots

  3. Inertia Enterprises (Fusion Energy): Secured $450M Series A led by Bessemer, with backing from GV and Threshold. The 2-year-old company is developing fusion power technology

  4. Axiom Space (Space Tech): Closed $350M led by Type One Ventures and QIA. The Houston-based firm is building a commercial ISS successor and lunar spacesuits

  5. Runway (AI): Raised $315M Series E led by General Atlantic, valuing the New York–based company at $5.3B, up from $3.3B last year

Will 2026 Be the Year of the ‘Soonicorn’? (The New York Times, 3 minute read)

The term “unicorn,” coined in 2013 to describe rare private startups valued at over $1 billion, has become far more common, with more than 1,000 unicorns now globally. The startup ecosystem has since expanded to include “decacorns” ($10B+) and “hectocorns” ($100B+), as well as “soonicorns”, VC-backed companies valued between $500 million and $999 million. By the end of last year, more than 2,000 U.S. companies had reached soonicorn status, a sharp increase from a decade ago

  • The AI boom has accelerated this trend, lowering funding barriers and enabling startups to reach high valuations faster

  • On average, it now takes about 3.5 years to reach unicorn status, down from 6.5 years before 2015

  • However, soonicorn status is not a guarantee of becoming a unicorn, some companies may go public at lower valuations, remain private at sub-$1B levels, or fail

  • Many startups are staying private longer, though major names like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are reportedly preparing for 2026 IPOs, signaling another shift in the “’corn” ecosystem

PitchBook data shows U.S. startup valuations are becoming extremely top-heavy, with value concentrating in a small group of winners, especially in AI. The estimated cumulative valuation of 857 U.S. unicorns reached $4.4T in 2025, up from $2.4T in 2024, but gains have been uneven. The top 10 startups now represent 51.8% of total unicorn value, up from 18.5% in 2022, while more than 25% of unicorns have fallen below $1B since their last priced round

  • PitchBook also finds many late-stage startups are stuck with stale valuations and facing steep resets: companies last funded in 2022 average a 52.1% markdown, and those last funded in 2021 trade at a 68.2% discount

  • The report expects more flat and down rounds as companies return to market and reprice

Private startup valuations have surged to unprecedented levels, making even $1 trillion insufficient to buy the top company, now that the combined SpaceX–xAI is valued at $1.25T. According to Forge, acquiring the top 100 U.S. venture-backed startups would now cost about $3.5T, highlighting a new era of “valuation escalation.” The biggest gains are concentrated among AI and frontier tech leaders

  • OpenAI is reportedly seeking a $750B+ valuation (up from $500B in October), while Anthropic is raising at a $350B valuation

  • Notably, many of these jumps happened within the past year, OpenAI was valued at $157B just 14 months ago, and SpaceX at $350B a year ago

  • While it remains unclear whether these valuations will hold, the momentum shows that top-tier startups, especially in AI, continue to scale their worth at a pace few predicted

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

 

U.S. inflation cooled to 2.4% in January, down from 2.7% in late 2025, with prices rising 0.2% month over month and core CPI up 0.3%, slightly better than economists’ expectations of 2.5% annual inflation. The moderation follows last year’s tariff-driven volatility, when inflation dipped to 2.3% in April before climbing back to 3% in September. The White House framed the data as evidence that tariffs are not fueling sustained price spikes and argued it strengthens the case for Fed rate cuts

  • However, the Federal Reserve has held rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling tariff effects may cause a temporary price bump before easing

  • The Fed is weighing mixed labor data: January hiring held up, but 2025 job growth was revised down to 181,000, vs. 2 million in 2024

  • Inflation remains a political vulnerability for Trump, with a 37% approval rating in a February Economist/YouGov poll and inflation his weakest issue ahead of the midterms

 

Investors will get a long-delayed read on the U.S. economy Friday with the release of Q4 2025 GDP, postponed by last year’s government shutdown. Bloomberg-surveyed economists expect growth to cool to 2.8% annualized, down from 4.4% in Q3, a slowdown, but still consistent with a resilient expansion despite lingering tariff concerns. The GDP report lands as recent U.S. data has surprised to the upside, prompting forecasters to revise expectations higher

  • Strong readings in trade, jobs, and consumer spending have challenged the earlier narrative that tariffs would push growth toward stagnation

  • Bank of America now forecasts 1% growth in 2026

  • That said, economists caution the shutdown may have reduced data quality, raising the risk of future revisions, meaning Friday’s GDP print could be less “final” than usual

 

U.S. hiring picked up modestly in January (+130,000 jobs), beating expectations, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. However, annual benchmark revisions showed 2025 was far weaker than previously reported, with nearly 900,000 fewer jobs than initially counted and job growth averaging just ~15,000 per month. Job gains in January were concentrated in health care and construction, while transportation/warehousing and the federal government lost jobs

  • Wage growth also cooled slightly, with average hourly earnings up 3.7% YoY (vs. 3.8% in December)

  • Fed Governor Chris Waller warned the revisions point to a labor market that is not healthy, arguing employers are hesitant to hire even if they aren’t firing aggressively, raising the risk of a sharper deterioration ahead

IPOs & EXITS

 

Despite steep losses among 2025 crypto IPOs following bitcoin’s drop from about $126,000 to below $63,000, a new wave of crypto companies is preparing to go public in 2026. Recent IPO performance has been volatile: Bullish (-52%), eToro (-58%), and Gemini (-80%) now trade well below their listing prices, underscoring how closely crypto stocks track underlying token prices. Analysts note that firms heavily exposed to trading volumes and crypto price swings face unstable revenues

  • However, companies with meaningful stablecoin businesses may fare better, as stablecoins, typically backed by U.S. Treasuries, offer steadier, recurring revenue

  • Regulatory shifts, including clearer federal frameworks and reduced approval hurdles, have reopened IPO and M&A pathways for crypto firms

  • Industry insiders say 2026 exits will likely favor larger, institutional-grade companies with diversified fundamentals, rather than those tied mainly to crypto price swings

 

Gail Slater is stepping down after 11 months as head of the DOJ’s antitrust division, reportedly pushed out by the Trump administration despite saying the decision was her own. A vocal critic of tech monopolies, she had clashed with senior officials over major deals, including Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s acquisition of Juniper Networks. Her departure could signal a more M&A-friendly shift, as the administration has already approved large transactions such as Alphabet’s $32 billion acquisition of Wiz. Slater leaves behind active antitrust cases against Google and Apple

  • Legal experts note that leadership transitions can slow investigations and reduce the likelihood of aggressive deal challenges

  • For venture capital investors seeking stronger exit activity, her exit may be seen as positive, especially as 2025 marked a record year for global and North American M&A, surpassing 2021, according to PitchBook

  • Omeed Assefi, her deputy, will serve as acting antitrust chief

SpaceX is reportedly considering a dual-class share structure for its planned IPO later this year, a setup that would give insiders, most notably Elon Musk, shares with extra voting power so they can maintain control even if their economic ownership is smaller. The company is also said to be adding board members to help oversee the IPO process and support Musk’s broader ambitions beyond SpaceX’s core rocket and satellite businesses. The IPO itself is expected to be enormous: reports suggest it could raise as much as $50 billion and potentially value SpaceX at more than $1.5 trillion

  • Proceeds would support expansion into new, capital-intensive projects, including ideas tied to AI infrastructure, such as space-based data centers, and longer-term moon-related initiatives

  • Dual-class structures are common among major U.S. tech firms, but critics argue they reduce accountability by insulating founders from shareholder pressure

WHAT A TIME TO BE ALIVE

Climate tech had a rough 2025, with slower growth, political headwinds, and many companies quietly dialing back net-zero messaging. But the underlying urgency hasn’t changed, and 2026 may become a year of “quiet climate,” where startups keep building while reframing their pitch around cost savings, efficiency, resilience, and unit economics instead of impact language. Despite the perception of slowdown, deployment trends remain strong: 

  • 92% of new global electricity capacity in 2025 came from wind and solar (up from 90% in 2024)

  • EVs exceeded 25% of new passenger vehicle sales (vs. 14% in 2022), and battery deployment jumped from 9 GWh in 2020 to 300 GWh in 2025

  • The takeaway: climate tech isn’t retreating, it’s repositioning, and the startups that survive 2026 may be the ones that set up the next major wave

 

California’s FIPVCC law (Fair Investment Practices by Venture Capital Companies) requires VC firms with a California nexus to begin founder diversity reporting in 2026. Covered entities must register with the DFPI by March 1, 2026, and submit their first annual report by April 1, 2026 (covering 2025 investments). The definition of a “covered entity” is broad and may include funds based outside California if they invest in California-based startups or raise from California residents/entities. Compliance centers on a DFPI-provided demographic survey that must be sent to portfolio company founding team members (after an investment agreement is signed and the first funds are transferred)

  • Founders can voluntarily report demographics (gender, race/ethnicity, disability, LGBTQ+, veteran status, CA residency) or decline

  • Firms must file an aggregated, anonymized report showing the % and $ invested in diverse-founded companies, plus amount invested per company and each company’s location

  • Reports include a $175 fee, firms must retain records for 5 years, and penalties can reach up to $5,000 per day after a 60-day cure period

AI8 VENTURES HIGHLIGHT

State of VC Report: The AI Power Law

“Every technological revolution has two halves: the bubble and the golden age that follows.”

Carlota Perez, economist and author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (2002)

The stock market is at all-time highs, but inflation remains sticky and the job market is weakening. Ask around and you’ll hear the same refrain: the labor market feels tougher than ever. At the same time, the first wave of AI agents is “joining the workforce”. Imagine a software engineering agent capable of performing most tasks of a mid-level developer. Now imagine thousands. Extend that across every knowledge field, and the implications for productivity, and potential displacement, are profound.

What happens when the next round of layoffs hits? Add tariffs on top, and ask what happens if consumption weakens. Even the Federal Reserve admits it is unsure of what comes next.

Against this backdrop, venture capital in 2025 is not in recovery but in recalibration. The illusion of recovery is powered almost entirely by AI. Capital is flowing, but to fewer companies than ever. Outside AI, down rounds are rising, and nearly half the unicorn population hasn’t raised since 2022.

We are living in an AI bubble. Just four mega caps, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Broadcom, accounted for 60% of the S&P 500’s gains, with Nvidia alone responsible for more than a quarter. It’s a paradox. Yes, we’re in a bubble, but it’s also the future. We are witnessing what may be the most important technological shift in a generation. It’s hype layered on top of something undeniably real.

Uncertainty is the name of the game; not one single path forward, but divergent scenarios. Alpha will be earned through selectivity, by navigating volatility rather than avoiding it.

8alpha.ai is an AI fintech transforming cash-generating businesses into scalable, AI-powered companies. We provide revenue-based financing and hands-on AI transformation, delivering no zeros with unlimited upside. We’re the architects building financial infrastructure for the next generation of investors and startups.

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Happy reading,

8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team