AI Keeps Climbing, So Does the Debt Clock

Author

Nicole Rojas
September 07, 2026

 

Welcome to AlphaInsights, 8alpha.ai’s weekly newsletter, your ultimate source for curated insights and key updates from the dynamic world of venture capital!

From billion-dollar rounds to market-defining shifts, we deliver the intelligence powering the global investment landscape, moving investors and innovators forward. At 8alpha.ai, we’re not waiting for the future of capital, we’re building it. Stay sharp, stay curious, and stay ahead.

STARTUPS

ROUNDS AND UNICORNS

  1. Crusoe (AI Infrastructure): Denver-based Crusoe raised $3 billion in a Series F co-led by Atreides Management and Valor Equity Partners, with Mubadala Capital also participating, valuing the AI cloud and data center provider at $30 billion — triple its valuation from less than a year ago

  2. Fluidstack (AI Infrastructure): New York-based Fluidstack raised $1.5 billion led by Jane Street Capital, bringing total funding to $2.6 billion and valuing the GPU and data center infrastructure provider at $18 billion

  3. Gimlet Labs (AI Infrastructure): San Francisco-based Gimlet Labs raised a $300 million Series B led by Andreessen Horowitz, with Sapphire Ventures, Menlo Ventures, Arm Holdings, and Microsoft's M12 participating, valuing its AI inference cloud company at $3 billion

  4. Upwind Security (Cybersecurity): San Francisco-based Upwind Security raised $300 million co-led by Bessemer Venture Partners and TCV, valuing the cloud security and threat-detection platform at $3.8 billion

  5. David (Food and Nutrition): New York-based high-protein food company David raised a $250 million Series B co-led by Greenoaks and Valor Equity Partners, valuing the company at $2.25 billion as it expands beyond its signature protein bars

Venture investors poured $42 billion into just over 1,500 startups worldwide in August, down 25% from July's $56 billion but up 122% compared to last August. Seven companies raised billion-dollar rounds during the month, tied for the year's second-highest monthly count after July's 13. Databricks led with a $5 billion raise at a $190 billion valuation, while other billion-dollar rounds spanned defense tech, AI, satellites, nuclear energy, and home batteries. On the exit side, Chinese humanoid robotics company Unitree Robotics went public at a roughly $9 billion valuation and surged 460% on its Shanghai Stock Exchange debut, while Nvidia's planned $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face marked the month's largest M&A deal, followed by Bending Spoons' approximately $1.3 billion bid for Airtable

  • Databricks added $56 billion to its valuation in just six months, while River AI raised $1.1 billion across its seed and Series A rounds this year alone

  • Five of August's seven billion-dollar funding recipients had last raised capital less than 12 months earlier

ECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

The US added 162,000 jobs in August, more than double economists' expectations of 65,000, marking the strongest gain since March, while unemployment held steady at 4.1%. July's figure was revised sharply upward from a 23,000-job loss to a 21,000-job gain, easing concerns about a rapidly slowing labor market. Growth was broad-based, with leisure and hospitality adding 62,000 jobs after two months of losses, and construction and manufacturing each growing for a second straight month, likely reflecting AI infrastructure buildout. However, wage growth slowed to 3.1% annually, a five-year low, marking the fourth straight month wages have trailed inflation, while information and financial services, sectors exposed to AI adoption, both shed jobs

  • Healthcare and social assistance added 28,400 jobs, while local government education reversed a large July loss with a 41,900-job gain

  • Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics cautioned the rebound may reflect payback from weak prior months rather than sustained acceleration

  • Treasury yields rose following the report, reflecting increased expectations the Fed could raise rates at its mid-September meeting

US annual interest expense on the roughly $40 trillion national debt has climbed to a record 18.5% of federal revenue, surpassing the previous 1991 high of 18.4%. The metric has more than quadrupled over four years, with interest costs now totaling a record $1.25 trillion. Rising Treasury yields have driven the increase, and analysts warn the growing burden could crowd out spending on defense and social programs while limiting flexibility for future recessions. Still, Fed Watch Advisors' Ben Emons noted the US is borrowing at a weighted-average rate near 3.5%, well below the 7% threshold where real stress would begin

  • Since 1970, federal debt has grown faster than nominal GDP, rising about $760 billion annually compared to GDP's $470 billion average annual growth

  • Nearly one in five dollars collected by the government now goes toward servicing existing debt

 

Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund, NBIM, has proposed cutting government bonds from 70% to 50% of its bond portfolio, primarily reducing US Treasury holdings from 34.1% to 21.9% while boosting Japanese bonds and US corporate debt. The move comes as Treasury yields sit at decade-highs amid concern over US debt, which recently topped $40 trillion. Economist Mohamed El-Erian said the shift signals that traditional Treasury buyers like Japan, China, and Gulf countries are becoming less reliable. NBIM has posted record profits from AI and tech investments, though CEO Nicolai Tangen warns those returns aren't sustainable, citing a stress test showing an AI correction could wipe out 35% of the fund's value

  • NBIM plans to increase nongovernment US fixed income holdings, including mortgage-backed securities, from 16.2% to 27.6%

  • The fund wants to weight government bond holdings by market value rather than GDP, citing high debt levels across developed economies

  • NBIM swung to a $40 billion loss in Q1 2025 during a tech-driven market downturn

 

Despite record highs across the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq in 2026, persistently elevated inflation remains a key risk, according to the Cleveland Fed's latest forecast. Headline CPI has been declining since peaking at 4.2% in May amid an oil-price spike tied to the Iran war, with further easing to 3.3% projected by September. However, core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to reaccelerate from 3.3% to 3.49% over the same period, suggesting inflation has spread beyond energy into the broader economy. The diverging trends suggest the Fed may need to raise rates sooner than expected, pressuring Wall Street's four-year bull run, especially given debt-financed AI data center spending

  • Core PCE peaked near a three-year high of 3.5% in May before easing to 3.3% in June and July

  • Rising core inflation alongside falling headline inflation suggests price pressures may prove more persistent than initially expected

 

IPOs & EXITS

Eight well-funded startups have been flagged as likely IPO candidates in the coming months, following a record first half of 2026 that saw 58 companies go public at $1 billion or above and $110.8 billion raised collectively, driven largely by SpaceX's historic $86 billion Nasdaq debut. Anthropic, the world's most valuable venture-backed startup, could debut as soon as September or October and raise up to $100 billion, though predictive estimates put its listing on a six-to-12-month timeline. Other candidates include smart-ring maker Oura, productivity software firm Notion, crypto exchange Kraken, AI chipmaker SambaNova, green-steel producer Stegra, payments giant Stripe, and medical AI platform OpenEvidence

  • Anthropic has raised $125 billion from private investors since its 2021 founding, while OpenAI is considered a likely but more distant candidate, possibly delaying into 2027

  • SambaNova raised $1 billion in a Series F this summer at an $11 billion valuation, following Cerebras Systems' $6.4 billion IPO in May

  • Stripe has raised $10.4 billion since 2010 but has repeatedly delayed going public, relying instead on employee tender offers for liquidity

 

Anthropic, which confidentially filed its Form S-1 a few weeks ago, is expected to release its IPO prospectus after Labor Day and could go public in late September or October seeking to raise up to $100 billion, surpassing SpaceX's record $86 billion raise, with a potential market cap of $2 trillion. The AI company has already raised more than $130 billion privately, including a $65 billion round this spring valuing it at $965 billion. Its revenue run rate reportedly hit $65 billion in July, six times higher than a year earlier, fueling major infrastructure deals including 5-gigawatt agreements with Amazon and with Google/Broadcom, plus compute deals with Nscale ($45 billion) and Lambda ($35 billion)

  • Anthropic also has a GPU capacity deal with SpaceX as part of its infrastructure buildout

  • 2026 has already seen the two largest IPOs ever, from SpaceX and SK Hynix's $26.5 billion Nasdaq cross-listing

  • The IPO would give Anthropic an additional capital source to fund expansion amid strong investor appetite for AI stocks

Oura files to go public (TechCrunch, 5 minute read)

Smart ring maker Oura has filed to go public, with SEC filings showing revenue jumped from $697 million to $1.2 billion over the nine months ended June 30, following full-year totals of roughly $500 million in 2024 and $1 billion in 2025. The Finland-based company sold 3.6 million rings and now has about 5 million paid members, with an 85% average retention rate. Oura reportedly seeks a $16 billion valuation and plans to raise $3 billion in the offering, up from roughly $11 billion last October. The company also touts its data advantage, citing nearly 42 billion hours of physiological data powering its AI models, even as it faces a lawsuit alleging its sleep-tracking claims are misleading

  • Oura's rings sell for $350 to $400 and track metrics including heart rate, stress, and sleep patterns via an accompanying app

  • The company aims to expand beyond fitness tracking into partnerships with health plans, employers, and care providers

  • Oura disputes the lawsuit's claims and says it will defend itself in the appropriate legal forum

Shein’s unhappy IPO (Financial Times, 4 minute read)

Shein's Hong Kong IPO priced shares at $6.19, raising $1.7 billion and valuing the company at just over $26 billion, a roughly 75% discount to its nearly $100 billion 2022 private valuation. Demand was lukewarm by Hong Kong standards, with cornerstone commitments covering only about 22% of the offering versus the typical 30-50%, and shares fell as much as 10% on debut before recovering to just below the IPO price. Strikingly, Shein may owe as much as $3.5 billion in cash and shares to earlier investors under anti-dilution clauses tied to prior funding rounds, meaning roughly twice the amount raised could flow back to existing shareholders. Analysts also note the stock wasn't cheap, priced at twice PDD Holdings' 2026 earnings multiple, while slower revenue growth and regulatory scrutiny weighed on investor confidence

  • Cornerstone investors committed just $383 million, thin for a jumbo Hong Kong listing, with most demand coming from existing shareholders rather than new long-only investors

  • Analysts say heavy underwriter reassurances about strong demand may have raised more skepticism than confidence among seasoned investors

  • The piece concludes Shein isn't necessarily a failed company, but that its hot private valuation simply didn't survive public market scrutiny

8ALPHA.AI HIGHLIGHT

We’re excited to share that our CEO, Carlos Ochoa, will be joining the judging panel at the Startup World Cup Seattle Regional on September 29, 2026!

Hosted by Venture Mechanics, the event will bring together some of Washington State’s most promising startups, investors, and innovation leaders for a day of live pitches, competition, and networking.

The stakes? The winning startup will advance to the global Grand Finale in San Francisco on November 6, where they’ll compete for a $1M investment prize.

With 100+ startups applying and 300+ attendees expected, plus an interactive expo and panel discussions featuring ecosystem leaders, it’s shaping up to be an exciting showcase of the companies building what’s next.

Founders, investors, and startup ecosystem folks, come join us!

What a great evening at the Seattle Chapter: Startup Pitch Competition!

A huge thank you to everyone who joined us and helped make the event such a success. It was great to see founders, investors, operators, and community members come together to support and strengthen the Seattle startup ecosystem.

To the founders who took the stage, thank you for sharing your vision, your hard work, and the companies you're building. And to our judges, thank you for your time, expertise, and thoughtful feedback.

Congratulations to Cameron McCann and the team at Q-Immune for taking home the win!

A special thank you to our fellow hosts, LaFamilia Foundation and Awana, and to our sponsors Silicon Valley Bank, Hal9, Microsoft, Carta, and Perkins Coie for helping make this event possible.

We hope this was more than just a competition. We hope it sparked new conversations, meaningful connections, and future collaborations across the Seattle startup ecosystem.

Looking forward to seeing what comes next.

The Venture Model Is Broken. What Comes Next?

99% of deals don’t matter.

In Q1 2026, nearly $200B went into just five companies, with ~89% of deal value concentrated in AI.

At the same time:

  • Fund formation has dropped sharply

  • Exit activity remains limited

  • Liquidity is concentrated in a handful of large outcomes

From the outside, it looks like venture capital is back. But underneath, the reality is very different.

Fewer funds are being raised

Liquidity is still tight

And for most companies, access to capital hasn’t improved

This isn’t just a cycle, it’s a structural shift in how capital is allocated.

Watch Nicole Rojas, Head of Investment Operations at 8alpha.ai, break it down in our latest State of VC update. Explore funding and learn more at 8alpha.ai.

State of VC Report: The AI Power Law

“Every technological revolution has two halves: the bubble and the golden age that follows.”

Carlota Perez, economist and author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (2002)

The stock market is at all-time highs, but inflation remains sticky and the job market is weakening. Ask around and you’ll hear the same refrain: the labor market feels tougher than ever. At the same time, the first wave of AI agents is “joining the workforce”. Imagine a software engineering agent capable of performing most tasks of a mid-level developer. Now imagine thousands. Extend that across every knowledge field, and the implications for productivity, and potential displacement, are profound.

What happens when the next round of layoffs hits? Add tariffs on top, and ask what happens if consumption weakens. Even the Federal Reserve admits it is unsure of what comes next.

Against this backdrop, venture capital in 2025 is not in recovery but in recalibration. The illusion of recovery is powered almost entirely by AI. Capital is flowing, but to fewer companies than ever. Outside AI, down rounds are rising, and nearly half the unicorn population hasn’t raised since 2022.

We are living in an AI bubble. Just four mega caps, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, and Broadcom, accounted for 60% of the S&P 500’s gains, with Nvidia alone responsible for more than a quarter. It’s a paradox. Yes, we’re in a bubble, but it’s also the future. We are witnessing what may be the most important technological shift in a generation. It’s hype layered on top of something undeniably real.

Uncertainty is the name of the game; not one single path forward, but divergent scenarios. Alpha will be earned through selectivity, by navigating volatility rather than avoiding it.

8alpha.ai is an AI fintech transforming cash-generating businesses into scalable, AI-powered companies. We provide revenue-based financing and hands-on AI transformation, delivering no zeros with unlimited upside. We’re the architects building financial infrastructure for the next generation of investors and startups.

Become part of our revolution.

Happy reading,

8alpha.ai’s Research & Investment Team